Thursday, October 29, 2009

Got Gold? HOT Breaking You will want to read this....

This is the breaking story I have been waiting for. It is still not completely finished it should be by days end. I thought I would share with you a major piece so you have an idea what it is all about. I will have the link and the complete story with sources for you later today!

Widespread Abnormalities Across Gold Market

The strange activity in gold markets isn't limited to out of control open interest on gold futures or fictitious Comex warehouse data. Things are going wrong across the gold market.

1) Early this year, The NYSE-Liffe futures exchange ran out of 1 kg bars of gold. Instead of receiving 1 kg bars as per mini-gold futures contracts, clearing members are now being allowed to hand out little slips of paper, called "warehouse depository receipts" (WDR), which gives the holder 1/3rd interest in a 100 ounce bar. Customers are not being allowed to take delivery, unless they can accumulate 3 WDRs. The NYSE effectively substituted the supply of 100 ounce bars for the supply of 1kg bars, which has run out. NYSE-Liffe mini-gold (YG) contract specifications were altered some time after December 31, 2008 to hide this default.

2) On March 19, the Fed announced its plan to purchase $300 billion long-term Treasuries, $750 billion (toxic) mortgage-backed securities, and $100 billion (toxic) debt issued by Fannie and Freddie. This announcement was INCREADIBLY BEARISH for the dollar and bullish for gold. In the following two days, someone increased open interest in gold futures by shorting 34 tons (1,209,600 ounces) of gold. Who in their right mind would short gold following the fed's plan to go on a buying binge and load up its balance sheet with toxic debt?

3) Two major events happened in the gold market at the end of March this year:

A) On March 31st, Deutsche Bank delivered 850,000 ounces of gold to Comex contract holders.
B) On March 31st, ECB announced it had "sold" 35.5 tons of gold (1,141,351 ounces).

Circumstantial evidence and common sense suggest that the European Central Bank sold its gold to Deutsche Bank and saved the bank and the Comex from default.

4) In the last three weeks, significant irregularities significant irregularities have appeared in the gold bar registry of GLD, with the length of the published GLD bar list going from 1,381 pages on September 25, to 208 pages on October 2, then back to 855 pages on October 14.

5) GFMS data on the volume of gold traded on the London market (about 90% of gold traded worldwide) does not tally with the estimated amount of gold bars which conform to "London Good Delivery" standard.

6) On October 29, 2008, the TOCOM added a 'physically backed commodity ETF' as a possible physical for EFP (Exchange of Futures for Physicals) transactions at the exchange. An exchange for physicals (EFP) transaction is when a client gives an IOU for a physical commodity to a broker and that broker opens a short position on the futures exchange in that commodity. Normally, Exchange for physicals is the legitimate process used by producers to sell futures against their future production. However, if the IOU portion of the EFP is not from a commodity producer (ie: borrowed a GLD Ishares), then you have a problem.]

In summary, New York and Tokyo commodity exchanges are now permitting their gold futures contracts to be settled not in real metal but in shares of gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This essentially allows those short gold (and the exchanges themselves, which guarantee futures contracts) the ability to transfer their obligations to third parties (commodity ETFs) that may not have the metal they claim to have.

7) Half a ton of gold has disappeared from the Royal Canadian Mint. An independent audit released on July 3rd found no accounting, bookkeeping, or other internal errors could account for about 17,500 troy ounces of gold missing from the mints inventory. Fearing a "run" on its gold, Royal Canadian Mint is reassuring customers their deposits are fully accounted for and in secure vaults. A RCMP investigation into the $15.3 million missing gold is "ongoing." (If half a ton of gold could disappear from one of the most secure buildings in Canada, then Isn't it about time for US gold reserves to be audited?)

8) Rob Kirby is reporting some VERY SERIOUS developments in the gold market, which, although I have no way to verify them, seem creditable in light of everything else that I KNOW is going):

A) During the week of Oct. 5, some large allocated physical transactions that were settled in London under VERY strange circumstances. Banks like JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank (who sold endless amounts of gold futures at prices of 950 to 1025) and then tried to make “side deals” with the folks they sold the futures to – offering them spot + 25 % (around 1,275 per ounce) to settle in fiat – after their counter parties demanded substantial tonnage of physical gold bullion.
B) A number of large interests have demanded audits of gold stored in London.
C) In an Asian depository, they've found "Good Delivery" bricks that had been gutted and filled with tungsten.

9) US-based clearing house CME Group Inc. is allowing physical gold to be used as collateral for margin requirements on all exchange products. This new CME policy is an act of desperation. The decision to “allow physical gold to be used as collateral for margin requirements on all exchange products”, against a backdrop of record prices and widespread abnormalities in gold markets, screams that something is wrong. The policy would never have been proposed unless JPMorgan really, really needed gold.

10) Statistics from United States Geological Survey show that the united states has exported 5000 metric tons of "Gold compounds" in last two years, and the US Census Bureau has assigned an astronomically high value to these exports. Until someone explains to me what these “gold compounds” are, I am going to assume that they were half the US gold reserves leaving the country.

The gold market is an accident waiting to happen

Basically, the gold market operates on a fractional reserve basis. On average there are several claims of ownership on each gold bar conforming to London Good Delivery (LGD) standard on the "pool" of gold which acts as liquidity for the massive OTC gold trade based in London. Similarly, there are several claims of ownership on the gold bars in Comex wherehouses. If a sufficient number of market participants become concerned about this (which is happening) and there is a stampede to take delivery of physical bullion, the entire gold market will come crashing down, taking most of the global financial system with it. Market failure isn't a risk, it is a certainty. The unregulated gold market is an accident waiting to happen.

No comments: